Deep Dives

Analysis, summaries & research

2026

Energy and Civilization: The Physical Constraints Behind Every Technology Bet Mar 2026 Vaclav Smil reveals why transitions take generations, why welfare saturates at 110 GJ, and why energy enables but never determines. · 17 min

Four Books, One Synthesis: Can We Power the Intelligence Revolution? Mar 2026 Energy, compute and the thermodynamic ceiling of AI scaling. · 18 min

State of Tech - AI x VC - Q1 2026 Feb 2026 Where tech, AI, and capital stand right now. Full LP presentation and key takeaways. · 6 min

Google AI: Mathematically Wrong, Empirically Right Jan 2026 Why Google's approach works despite breaking the rules. · 12 min

2025

LLMs Navigate Knowledge, They Do Not Create Dec 2025 A framework for understanding what language models actually do. · 14 min

Intelligence Without Memory: The Billion-Parameter Bet Nov 2025 The paradox of building systems that forget everything. · 13 min

Deployment Metabolism: Mapping Constraints to Strategy Oct 2025 A framework for diagnosing your five deployment forces and understanding how constraints determine which strategic approaches can work. · 18 min

The Deployment Paradox: How AI and Complex Systems Actually Reach Markets Oct 2025 You need trust to deploy, but you need deployment to earn trust. How to resolve the circular dependency. · 18 min

Intelligence Isn't the Moat Anymore: The New Frontier Is Verification Oct 2025 Why the next competitive edge in AI is proving your outputs are correct. · 12 min

Surviving the Reset: A Framework for AI Competitive Advantage Oct 2025 What separates the companies that will survive the correction. · 15 min

Market Sizing for Founders Oct 2025 A practical framework for sizing markets when you're building something new. · 10 min

On Systemic Errors: Probabilistic LLMs at Scale Sep 2025 When your system is wrong 2% of the time but processes a billion requests. · 10 min